Ethereum risks 10% drop against Bitcoin as double-top pattern emerges
Key takeaways
- ETH traded near 0.03167 BTC as its performance against Bitcoin weakened.
- A potential double top has formed with two peaks around 0.03344 BTC.
- A close below the 0.03078 BTC neckline could trigger a 10% decline toward 0.0283 BTC.
Ethereum is showing signs of further underperformance against Bitcoin as a potential double-top pattern develops on the ETH/BTC daily chart.
Ether traded near 0.03167 BTC on September 16 after failing to sustain its latest advance. Weakening momentum, growing regulatory uncertainty, and a sharp increase in ETH deposits to Binance support a cautious near-term outlook.
A confirmed breakdown below 0.03078 BTC could send the pair approximately 10% lower toward 0.0283 BTC.
ETH/BTC double top signals potential decline
The ETH/BTC chart has formed two comparable peaks near 0.03344 BTC, with the first appearing in August and the second in September.
This structure resembles a double top, a bearish reversal pattern that develops when buyers repeatedly fail to break through the same resistance level.
The pattern’s neckline sits near 0.03078 BTC. Ethereum would need to record a decisive daily close below this level to confirm the bearish setup.
Subtracting the pattern’s height from the neckline produces a downside target around 0.0283 BTC. Reaching that level would represent an approximately 10% decline from Ether’s current value against Bitcoin.
Ethereum momentum weakens
The ETH/BTC Relative Strength Index has fallen toward 50 after previously moving above the overbought threshold of 70.
Although the RSI remains slightly above neutral, its retreat indicates that the momentum supporting Ethereum’s August-to-September recovery is fading.
Ether is still holding marginally above its 20-day exponential moving average at approximately 0.03162 BTC. A strong rebound from this moving average could delay or prevent the bearish breakdown.
A sustained move above the two peaks at 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double-top scenario and restore a more bullish relative outlook for ETH.
The bearish technical setup emerged as the US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15.
The procedural vote received 50 votes in favor and 49 against but fell short of the 60 votes required to move the legislation forward. A procedural vote change by Senator Thom Tillis preserves the possibility of reconsidering the measure.
The setback triggered a wider cryptocurrency sell-off. Bitcoin declined approximately 4% to around $75,900, while shares of major crypto companies, including Coinbase and Circle, also fell.
Regulatory uncertainty can encourage traders to favor Bitcoin over more risk-sensitive assets such as Ethereum. This could increase pressure on the ETH/BTC pair and bring the 0.03078 BTC neckline back into focus.
Binance receives 709,400 ETH in one day
Ethereum deposits to Binance have also increased sharply, creating another potential source of selling pressure.
Approximately 709,400 ETH moved onto the exchange on September 11, marking the highest daily inflow since June, according to CryptoQuant. Several recent sessions also recorded inflows exceeding 500,000 ETH, considerably above typical July and August levels.
Rising exchange inflows increase the amount of ETH immediately available for trading. Although transfers to exchanges do not necessarily mean holders intend to sell, unusually large deposits can precede higher market supply and increased volatility.
The elevated inflows reinforce the cautious outlook created by Ethereum’s weakening relative momentum and the CLARITY Act setback.
ETH/BTC bulls must defend 0.03078
The bearish scenario depends on ETH/BTC closing decisively below the 0.03078 BTC neckline. Confirmation could open the path toward the measured target of 0.0283 BTC.
However, support from the 20-day EMA near 0.03162 BTC could allow Ether to rebound. A break above 0.03344 BTC would invalidate the double top and signal renewed Ethereum strength against Bitcoin.
